(07 Jan 2021)
IATA’s data for global air freight markets in November
2020 shows that freight volumes improved compared to October, but
remain depressed when compared to 2019.

Capacity remains constrained from the loss of
available belly cargo space as passenger aircraft remain parked.

Global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers
(CTKs), was 6.6% below previous-year levels in November (-7.7% for
international operations). This was on par with the 6.2 %
year-on-year drop in October. The year-on-year decline is skewed
as November 2019 had a boost in demand from the waning US-China
trade war.

Seasonally adjusted demand (SACTKs) continued to
improve, increasing 1.6% month-on-month in November. This was a
slight improvement over the monthly growth rate of 1.1% in
October. Current month-on-month gains indicate that SACTKs will
return to 2019 levels around March or April 2021.

Global capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers
(ACTKs), shrank by 20% in November (-21.3% for international
operations) compared to the previous year. That is nearly three
times larger than the contraction in demand. The capacity crunch
is caused by a 53% decrease in in belly capacity which has only
been partially offset by a 20% increase in freighter capacity.

Strong regional variations continue with North
American carriers reporting year-on-year gains in demand (+5%),
while all other regions remained in negative territory compared to
a year earlier.

Economic conditions in November, normally the peak
season for air cargo, remained positive:

– The new export orders component of the
manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remained in growth
territory in both developed and emerging markets for the third
month in a row after two years of indicating negative growth.

– Retail sales for November were up by around 5%
over 2019 for both China and the US, propelled by events like
Black Friday and Singles Day.

“Air cargo demand is still down 6.6% compared to
the previous year,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and
CEO. “However, we are seeing continuing month-on-month
improvements. Severe capacity constraints persist as large parts
of the passenger fleet remain grounded. This will put pressure on
the industry as it gears up to deliver vital COVID19 vaccines.”

Asia Pacific airlines reported a decline in
year-on-year international demand of 9.5% in November 2020
compared to the same month a year earlier. This was a 2.2%
improvement from the 11.7% fall in October 2020. While
international traffic within the region remains weak (down 19.6%
year-on-year in November), exports on the Asia-North America and
Asia-Europe routes are strong, driven by demand for e-commerce and
PPE. International capacity remained constrained in the region,
down 25.3%. However, this was an improvement over the 28.5% fall
the previous month.

North American carriers posted a 1% increase in
international demand in November compared to the previous
year – just the third month of growth in 12 months. This stronger
performance compared to the rest of the industry was driven by a
less stringent capacity crunch compared to other regions, with
international capacity only down 12.7% in November. Strong traffic
on the Asia-North America routes also contributed to the
performance, reflecting rising e-commerce demand for products
manufactured in Asia.

European carriers reported a decrease in
international demand of 13.7% in November compared to the previous
year. This was a 2.7% decline in performance compared to October
2020. Air cargo in the region has been significantly affected by
the resurgence of the COVID-19 virus and the impact of lockdowns
on consumer demand and business activity. Lack of capacity remains
a challenge, as international capacity decreased 24.9% in
November.

Middle Eastern carriers reported a decline of 2.2%
in year-on-year international cargo volumes in November, a 1.1%
deterioration from October. The lack of international connectivity
is hampering air cargo recovery in the region, however seasonally
adjusted demand remains on an upward trend. International capacity
decreased by 18.6%.

Latin American carriers reported a decline of
19.4% in international cargo volumes in November compared to the
previous year. This was a drop from the 12.2% fall in October
2020. Air cargo in the region has been significantly affected by
the resurgence of the COVID-19 virus and the impact of lockdowns
on consumer demand and business activity. International capacity
decreased 24.8% in November, an improvement from the 28.9% fall in
October.

African airlines saw international demand fall by
1.7% year-on-year in November, after three months of positive
year-on-year growth. This is primarily driven by a soft
performance on the Asia-Africa route, which was down 4.5%
year-on-year. International capacity decreased by 19.4%.

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