(05 Mar 2021)
IATA has reported that compared to pre-COVID19 levels (January 2019)
and even December 2020, passenger traffic fell in January 2021.

Because comparisons between 2021 and 2020 monthly
results are distorted by the extraordinary impact of COVID19,
the comparisons below are to January 2019, unless noted otherwise.

Total demand in January 2021 (measured in revenue
passenger kilometers or RPKs) was down 72.0% compared to January
2019. That was worse than the 69.7% year-over-year decline
recorded in December 2020.

Total domestic demand was down 47.4% versus
pre-crisis (January 2019) levels. In December it was down 42.9% on
the previous year. This weakening is largely driven by stricter
domestic travel controls in China over the Lunar New Year holiday
period.

International passenger demand in January was
85.6% below January 2019, a further drop compared to the 85.3%
year-to-year decline recorded in December.

“2021 is starting off worse than 2020 ended and
that is saying a lot,” said Alexandre de
Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO. “Even as vaccination programs gather pace, new COVID variants are leading governments to increase travel
restrictions. The uncertainty around how long these restrictions
will last also has an impact on future travel. Forward bookings in
February this year for the Northern Hemisphere summer travel
season were 78% below levels in February 2019.”

Asia-Pacific
airlines’ January traffic plummeted 94.6% compared to the same
month in 2019, virtually unchanged from the 94.4% decline registered for
December 2020 compared to a year ago. The region continued to
suffer from the steepest traffic declines for a seventh
consecutive month. Capacity dropped 86.5% and load factor sank
49.4 percentage points to 32.6%, by far the lowest among regions.

European carriers had an 83.2% decline in traffic in January
versus January 2019, worsened from an 82.6% decline in December
compared to the same month in 2019. Capacity sank 73.6% and load
factor fell by 29.2 percentage points to 51.4%.

Middle
Eastern airlines saw demand plunge 82.3% in January compared to
January 2019, which was broadly unchanged from an 82.6% demand
drop in December versus a year ago. Capacity fell 67.6%, and load
factor declined 33.9 percentage points to 40.8%.

North
American carriers’ January traffic fell 79.0% compared to the 2019
period, up slightly from a 79.5% decline in December year to year.
Capacity sagged 60.5%, and load factor dropped 37.8 percentage
points to 42.9%.

Latin American airlines experienced a
78.5% demand drop in January, compared to the same month in 2019,
worsened from a 76.2% decline in December year-to-year. January
capacity was 67.9% down compared to January 2019 and load factor
dropped 27.2 percentage points to 55.3%, highest among the regions
for a fourth consecutive month.

African airlines’
traffic dropped 66.1% in January, which was a modest improvement
compared to a 68.8% decline recorded in December versus a year
ago. January capacity contracted 54.2% versus January 2019, and load factor fell 18.4 percentage points to 52.3%.

Domestic
Passenger Markets

China’s domestic traffic was down 33.9% in January
compared to January 2019, dramatically worse compared to the 8.5%
year-on-year decline in December. The fall was mainly caused by
stricter traffic controls ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday
period amid several localized COVID19 outbreaks.

Russia’s domestic traffic, by contrast, rose 5.5% compared to
January 2019, a turnaround from the 12.0% year- on-year decline in
December versus the same month in 2019. It was driven by a fall in
COVID19 cases since a peak late in December and by national
holidays in the first week of the month.

“To say that 2021 has not gotten off to a good start
is an understatement,” said de Juniac. “Financial prospects for the year are worsening as governments tighten travel restrictions. We now
expect the industry to burn through $75-$95 billion in cash this
year, rather than turning cash positive in the fourth quarter, as
previously thought. This is not something that the industry will
be able to endure without additional relief measures from
governments.

“Increased testing capability and vaccine
distribution are the keys for governments to unlock economic
activity, including travel. It is critical that governments build
and share their restart plans along with the benchmarks that will
guide them. This will enable the industry to be prepared to
energize the recovery without any unnecessary delay.

“Global standards to securely record test and
vaccination data in formats that will be internationally
recognized are urgently needed. “These will be critical to
restarting international travel if governments continue to require
verified testing or vaccination data. IATA will soon launch the
IATA Travel Pass to help travelers and governments manage digital
health credentials. But the full benefit of IATA Travel Pass
cannot be realized until governments agree the standards for the
information they want.”

What is the IATA Travel Pass, and what does it
mean for travellers, airlines and the global travel industry? 
Exclusive video interview with IATA’s Regional
Director Airports and External Relations – Asia Pacific, Vinoop
Goel on 2 March 2021.

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